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Let the Wolves Feast

I’m fascinated by NFT market dynamics. These are real people — shelling out hard-earned money on insanely speculative assets. With any new drop, you get to witness price discovery in real time — bottoms and tops forming right before your eyes.

But is this still the case on ThetaDrop? Let’s take a quick look at yesterday’s Knight Commander drop and find out.

Predictably, with only 1250 editions, the drop sold out immediately.

One day after the drop: around 30% of the packs have been opened.

Traders are preferring to HODL packs because they maintain a higher value compared to the floor price of opened NFT’s.

ThetaDrop clearly loves the pack concept — which absolutely makes sense. By wrapping each NFT in a pack, they’re creating an additional secondary market transaction.

It also prevents a flood of inventory from hitting the marketplace all at once. Tighter inventory raises the floor price, and nets a larger 10% fee for the platform and the creators.

It’s smart. It’s probably the best way to maximize profits.

But let’s look at the other side of the coin.

By allowing any Jabroni with an e-mail address and $100 to come in and buy up an NFT pack — what we’re ending up with is a bunch of people with possibly little interest in the project HODL’ing packs — just because it’s the safer play to maximize gainz.

What if there were no packs?

If your NFT was instantly revealed, traders would have to make a decision: Do I really like this NFT? Do I believe in this project? Do I want to hold this thing as prices are falling?

By utilizing packs, ThetaDrop is putting an artificial floor on the market that also serves to protect people from getting blown out. Which is okay, maybe…

But, if a trader has the patience of a squirrel — maybe they should at least be given the opportunity to prove their weak handedness. Because then, the market can find the real bottom…and true momentum can begin.

The question I’m driving at is this: is it always best to release NFT’s in packs?

Are there some drops where it would be better to omit the kiddie pool safety of packs and instead, just let the markets find true value?

Can we occasionally let the wolves feast? This is how momentum builds, after all.

ThetaDrop was great when inventory was flowing and people were happily ripping opening packs at $10-$50 prices. Markets were volatile and true price discovery was happening right before our eyes.

Not so much anymore. Now inventory is tight, and everyone is protecting their cherished packs, because it’s safe. With this predictable pattern emerging, maybe it’s best to forgo the packs.

Because in the end, if we wanted to participate in manipulated markets, we wouldn’t be mucking around with digital drawings of Frogs and Pineapples — we’d be trading stonks.